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Free Projections + Analysis: Karl-Anthony Towns

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by Eric Wong on September 10, 2017

Will Towns’ scoring go down now that the T-Wolves have added Jimmy Butler?

Even our Basic Draft Guide includes Player Profiles + Stat Projections for 300+ players. Some sites like to take the easy way out by relying on algorithms to make their projections, but we continue to calculate by hand, going team by team, player by player, category by category. Of course tons of research is done to properly assess each player, and these stats are added up for each team to make sure we’re not overshooting (for example, that we don’t have the new-look Timberwolves suddenly scoring 130+ points per game).

Karl-Anthony Towns

In his 2nd NBA season Towns saw his minutes jump from 32 to 37 mpg, trailing only LeBron, Lowry and Wiggins in terms of minutes per game. This allowed the big man’s production to soar, and he was the only guy in the league to average 25+ points and 12+ boards last year. Karl-Anthony expanded his offensive game by becoming more unstoppable in the paint (62.2% on shots within 10 feet, which accounted for over 63% of his total shot attempts), reducing his number of long twos (11% of his shot attempts, down from 28% the year prior) and showing that he could drain threes with ease (1.2 triples per game on 37% 3P).

Having a reliable 3-point shot in his arsenal is almost unfair, because KAT also has the handle and quickness to beat any big man off the dribble, making him extremely tough to defend. And his excellent touch from the foul line (83% FT on 5.2 FTA last year) is simply icing on the cake. Towns is also impressively mature given his young age (he’ll turn 22 in November), but he and Wiggins have lots of room to grow as defenders (which is why Tom Thibodeau brought in Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson).

Obviously Minnesota’s starting lineup looks very different now, and there may be concerns about Towns losing some touches and shot attempts given that Jimmy Butler is a great scorer plus very high usage player (and even Jeff Teague had a higher usage rate than Ricky Rubio last year). But Towns is simply too talented, and I expect him to assert early on that he’s going to be Minnesota’s leading scorer, while Butler, Wiggins and Teague make sacrifices instead.

Bottom Line: Towns is a SASQUATCH in the paint and he’s becoming one of the toughest covers in the league, so he should be right around 25 ppg again. And his 3-point attempts will surely increase due to the NBA evolving, making 1.5+ triples quite possible. One area where Karl-Anthony can really pump up his fantasy value is shot-blocking, as he swatted 1.9 shots per 36 minutes as a rookie, but just 1.2 per 36 mins last season. With Anthony Davis and Cousins having to share stats in New Orleans, and Jokic and Gobert not being as potent scoring-wise, Towns should be the top big man selected in all leagues this year. And assuming he has a healthy career, there’s no doubt in my mind that KAT is a future Hall of Famer.

RotoEvil’s 2017-18 Projections for: Karl-Anthony Towns
Free Fantasy Basketball Projections - Karl-Anthony Towns

These free projections are being shown as images, but our Draft Guide users get access to a giant spreadsheet containing ALL of our Stat Projections, sortable by category, so you can quickly view league leaders and easily compare stats of similar players.

And if you want to access the most accurate NBA fantasy rankings available, you’ll need to join RotoEvil nation, fantasy basketball’s best kept secret!

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