Free Projections + Analysis: Chris Paul

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by Eric Wong on September 10, 2017

Now that he’s sharing playmaking duties with Harden, what can we expect from CP3?

Even our Basic Draft Guide includes Player Profiles + Stat Projections for 300+ players. Some sites like to take the easy way out by relying on algorithms to make their projections, but we continue to calculate by hand, going team by team, player by player, category by category. Of course tons of research is done to properly assess each player, and these stats are added up to make sure we’re not overshooting (for example, that we don’t have the new-look Rockets handing out 40+ assists per game).

Chris Paul

Harden and Paul in the same backcourt?!? We will soon find out how well these two mesh, but first Mike D’Antoni must figure out how to best utilize a player like Paul, whose style of play is different than what the Rockets are used to. For example, catch and shoot threes accounted for 38.6% of Patrick Beverley’s shot attempts last season, while that number was a mere 8.7% for Paul. Similarly, only 16.3% of Patrick’s shots came after 7+ dribbles, compared to 37.7% for Chris.

This doesn’t mean Paul will have to completely change to being a spot-up shooter, but D’Antoni will be expecting more ball movement and less one on one probing from CP3. Since he’ll have to share playmaking duties with Harden his assists are obviously going to take a hit, meaning Paul will likely hand out less than 9 apg for the 1st time since 2006-07. But I’m still projecting over 8 dimes per game for Chris, because Houston’s offense is going to be extremely potent and Paul is too good a playmaker. His 3-point makes and attempts are also going to soar, as CP will surely reduce his number of long 2-pointers in lieu of the more valuable shot.

Bottom Line: Paul should be good for around 19 points, 5 rebounds, 8-9 assists, 2 steals and perhaps up to 2.5 triples per game on his new team, meaning he’ll still be a fantasy stud. His age (32) and recent injury history (49 games missed over the past four seasons) are slight concerns, but Paul is smart enough to adapt to his new team, and skilled point guards tend to prosper in D’Antoni’s offenses.

RotoEvil’s 2017-18 Projections for: Chris Paul
Free Fantasy Basketball Projections - Chris Paul

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