Free Projections + Analysis: Kristaps Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony

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by Eric Wong on September 10, 2017

Will Porzingis average more points than Melo this season?? And how much longer will this duo be together?

Even our Basic Draft Guide includes Player Profiles + Stat Projections for 300+ players. Some sites like to take the easy way out by relying on algorithms to make their projections, but we continue to calculate by hand, going team by team, player by player, category by category.

The Knicks are surely going to lose a lot of games again, but their two best players are still going to put up some nice numbers…

Kristaps Porzingis

Expectations were very high for Porzingis last year after his impressive rookie season, but the results were mixed. On one hand, Kristaps did a nice job of improving his scoring efficiency, going from 33% on threes and 45% on twos as a rook, to 36% on threes and 49% on twos in 2016-17. He did so while taking on more scoring responsibility and getting more attention from opposing teams, trends which will continue to increase moving forward. However, KP’s per minute stats declined in most categories, while his foul rate went up considerably (only Cousins committed more fouls per game).

One obvious flaw for Porzingis is his inability to hold position in the paint (whether boxing out, defending or posting up), so he really needs to focus on getting stronger, especially his legs and core for better balance. This would help the Latvian’s game immensely on both ends of the floor, but the 22 year old’s body isn’t going to rapidly change from just one offseason. So don’t expect to see prime Porzingod just yet, although his Durant-like release point and Dirk-like shooting touch give Kristaps star potential.

Bottom Line: The Unicorn hasn’t been happy in New York, but every team in the league would love to have KP on their team. With Carmelo likely on the way out, Kristaps will need to become a better leader both on and off the floor, and his fantasy potential is sky high. For example, Porzingis could average 20+ points, 7.5+ boards, 2+ blocks and 2+ treys per game as soon as this season, which has NEVER been accomplished before. We know he’s going to get plenty of shot attempts in 2017-18, but when watching him play I suggest focusing on the little things, such as KP establishing deeper post position, passing out of double teams and being more vocal on defense. His fantasy value is rising, so don’t let him fall past pick #30.

RotoEvil’s 2017-18 Projections for: Kristaps Porzingis
Free Fantasy Basketball Projections - Kristaps Porzingis

Carmelo Anthony

The Knicks are in a tough spot with Anthony, as he can opt out of his contract next summer but also has a no trade clause built-in, meaning he has final say whether or not to approve any potential trades. Melo has been trying to leverage this into being sent to the Rockets, but he’ll need to be more open-minded if he wants to compete in the postseason this year (even in the weakened East the Knicks aren’t making the playoffs).

Assuming Melo starts the season in New York, Anthony will be expected to help Porzingis lead this team in scoring again, although his days of averaging 25+ ppg appear to be over. While Melo still loves to operate in the mid-range, last season he was much more perimeter-based (over 30% of his shot attempts were threes, while less than 13% came in the restricted area, compared to 24% and 21% the year prior).

Bottom Line: Anthony has shot a poor 43-44% FG the past few years, and that efficiency will only improve if he lands on a better team. In fact, it would probably be a good thing (for both Carmelo’s career and for his fantasy owners) if he had a smaller role on a more potent offensive team, scoring 18-19 ppg on 46% FG, rather than 22 ppg on 43% shooting. At 33 years old he’s on the downside of his career, and he should no longer be considered a fantasy stud. Drafting Melo in the Top 50 is pretty risky this year, and if he gets off to a hot start you should consider trying to trade him.

RotoEvil’s 2017-18 Projections for: Carmelo Anthony
Free Fantasy Basketball Projections - 
Carmelo Anthony

These free projections are being shown as images, but our Draft Guide users get access to a giant spreadsheet containing ALL of our Stat Projections, sortable by category, so you can quickly view league leaders and easily compare stats of similar players.

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